Chatham House questions Tinubu’s foreign outreach as US shifts Africa strategy to trade and critical mineral partnerships.
President Bola Tinubu’s high-profile diplomatic engagements, including his recent state visit to the United Kingdom, are yet to translate into meaningful improvements in the daily lives of Nigerians, according to a new assessment by Chatham House.
This comes as the United States unveiled a headline sweeping shift in its Africa policy anchored on trade, investment, and strategic interests, rather than on aid, stressing that its relationship with Africa will henceforth be strictly transactionary, rather than on ‘public moralising’.
But The Chatham House which report cast a critical light on the administration’s foreign policy approach, argued that while Tinubu has maintained an active and visible presence on the global stage, the domestic dividends of such engagements remain limited.
Despite efforts to position Nigeria as a key international partner and attract investment through agreements such as the UK-Nigeria Enhanced Trade and Investment Partnership, economic hardship, insecurity, and structural weaknesses, it explained, continue to define the lived reality for most citizens.
Nearly three years into his presidency, the report noted that Tinubu’s diplomacy has been “rhetorically polished” and, at times, strategically sound, but has struggled to deliver broad-based economic relief.
While the government points to improvements such as easing inflation, a more stable naira, and renewed investor interest, these gains, according to the organisation, have not significantly reduced poverty, food insecurity, or weak consumer spending.
Instead, the reforms underpinning the administration’s economic agenda, including fuel subsidy removal, currency devaluation, and tax adjustments, it emphasised, have drawn comparisons to the painful structural adjustment policies of the late 1980s, which imposed lasting social costs without delivering inclusive growth.
Chatham House, a world renowned London-based independent non-profit policy institute, established over 100 years ago, is funded from a diverse mix of sources, including government grants and partnerships, multilateral institutions, corporate sponsors, among others.
The report highlighted deep structural constraints that continue to weigh on Nigeria’s economy, including limited access to electricity, weak public services, and persistent insecurity, which it said have hindered productivity and investment.
While growth remains concentrated in capital-intensive sectors such as finance and technology, agriculture, a major employer, according to Chatham House, is constrained by violence and logistical bottlenecks.
“Tinubu’s foreign policy has been rhetorically polished and sometimes strategically astute; it reflects Nigeria’s profile as a regional power and a key Commonwealth state, and has opened channels for deeper economic and security cooperation.
“But nearly three years into Tinubu’s presidency, the key question is whether this visibility-driven foreign policy has delivered domestic gains. So far, the president’s prominent international profile has not largely translated into improvements in material conditions for most Nigerians.
“Tinubu has engaged in frequent presidential travel, maintaining a visible presence at summits across Europe, the Middle East, Asia and Africa. His trips – and those of senior officials – have drawn criticism for their cost amid rising poverty, hunger and falling purchasing power back home,” it pointed out.
Chatham House, officially the Royal Institute of International Affairs, founded in 1920 to promote the understanding of international affairs, stressed that although Nigeria has expanded cooperation with partners like the UK in areas such as counterterrorism and maritime security, these efforts have yet to significantly improve safety on the ground.
According to the organisation, violence, kidnappings, and insurgency persist across multiple regions, with thousands killed in the past year alone.
Chatham House argued that without parallel progress in governance reforms, justice systems, and local security structures, external partnerships will continue to yield only limited results. It warned that the perception of a government focused more on international optics than domestic realities could deepen public discontent ahead of the 2027 elections.
“Tinubu’s administration has also sought international validation for its key domestic reforms – fuel subsidy removal, naira devaluation and tax reform. His team cites various policy achievements as proof of success.
“These include headline inflation falling from above 30 per cent in 2024 to around 15 per cent last month; a stabilising naira; Nigeria’s removal from the Financial Action Task Force’s (FATF) grey list; S&P raising its outlook to ‘positive’; and renewed investor interest.
“However, for many Nigerians, the combination of subsidy removal, devaluation and tougher taxation with weak safety nets recalls the ‘shock therapy’ of the late 1980s, when IMF-aligned reforms under General (Ibrahim) Babangida produced lasting social costs.
“Poverty remains high, food insecurity has risen, household spending remains weak and credit remains expensive for small firms. Growth is concentrated in capital-intensive sectors such as finance and ICT, while agriculture remains constrained by insecurity and structural bottlenecks.
“Nigeria’s deficits in education, skills and health are having a more negative impact on future earnings than in other comparable economies,” the organisation maintained.
In the same vein, the United States has outlined a markedly different vision for its engagement with Nigeria and other African countries under the Donald Trump administration, stressing that it prioritises economic partnerships over traditional aid frameworks. It stated that it is no longer its duty to continue to moralise about Africa.
In remarks titled: “America First in Africa,”detailing Washington’s Africa policy, Senior Bureau Official, Bureau of African Affairs, Washington DC, Nick Checker, maintained that the US is “resetting” its relationship with the continent, shifting from what he described as a model of aid and dependency to one rooted in trade, investment, and mutual benefit.
Arguably the first time the State Department, under Marco Rubio, will publicly outline the Trump administration policy toward Africa, the State Department signaled that the motivations driving the Trump administration are no longer centered on public ‘moralising’ which had previously dominated discourse.
Instead, the US noted that it is now advancing a more pragmatic policy built on three pillars: commercial diplomacy, restructuring foreign aid, and conflict resolution.
Checker during the programme tagged: “Powering Africa Summit”, stated that the United States is redefining its relationship with Africa based on “mutually beneficial partnerships, rather than aid, dependency, or the export of divisive ideologies.”
At the core of this approach, he said, is a doctrine that places American national interest above all else, explicitly rejecting past efforts to promote liberal democratic norms as a primary objective of foreign policy.
“To be successful in diplomacy as a result means meeting countries on their own terms, and respecting differences in culture, history, and governance in order to advance shared priorities.
This reality means we must engage governments as they are, and not as Washington wishes them to be.
“We have no fond illusions about the end of history. Engagement is not approval but is accepting political realities and the futility of attempting to impose domestic legitimacy. Instead, we must engage in diplomacy that respects sovereignty, uses quiet leverage on values-based issues, avoids public moralising and virtue signaling, and prioritises partner countries that want to work with us on issues that matter most from curbing mass destabilising migration to unleashing the power of American free enterprise,” the top US official explained.
With nine of the world’s 20 fastest-growing economies and a population projected to reach 2.5 billion by 2050, the continent, he said, represents a vast and largely untapped market. Its consumer spending is expected to exceed $16 trillion, creating significant opportunities for global investors.
“While previous administrations focused on aid and lectures, the Trump administration promotes trade and private investment as the foundation for sustainable growth and partnership. We are engaging African nations not as aid recipients, but as capable commercial partners.
“Our objective put simply—increase U.S. exports and investment in Africa to drive mutual prosperity and harness Africa’s abundant natural resources and latent economic potential to secure our supply chains.
“Africa is the world’s next great commercial opportunity. Nine of the 20 fastest growing economies are in Africa, and by 2050, one out of every four people on the planet will be in Africa—2.5 billion consumers with projected purchasing power exceeding $16 trillion.
“Meeting that demand will require massive investment in generation, infrastructure, and supply chains. It is true that Africa accounts for just one per cent of U.S. exports. However, with the economic and demographic changes that are in motion, we have tremendous room for growth that will benefit The United States and Africa,” he explained.
At the same time, Washington said it was overhauling its approach to foreign assistance. On security, the US said it is pursuing a more restrained posture, focusing on conflict mediation and regional burden-sharing rather than long-term military deployments.
“That is why “Trade-not-Aid” isn’t just something we are saying, it is something we are doing. We’ve launched a commercial diplomacy strategy to realise this. Our strategy makes commercial diplomacy a top priority and retools our embassy personnel to make deal teams a reality,” Checker explained.
He added: “Since the beginning of this administration, our embassies in the field and Washington team have worked directly to support over 60 different deals worth more than 25 billion dollars. We exceeded annual export totals to sub-Saharan Africa for 2022, 2023, and 2024 by mid-October of 2025. Final numbers are on track to see a 23 per cent increase for the year.
“Africa sits at the centre of the global race for critical minerals—from cobalt and copper to graphite and rare earth elements. The Trump administration’s critical minerals strategy in Africa is driven by a clear and consistently stated demand from African partner governments: they want increased U.S. investment in their mining sectors.
“For too long, these sectors have been dominated by opaque, predatory investments from our adversaries that prey on corruption and create unsustainable markets. African governments increasingly recognise that they are being exploited by these practices and see the United States as a more transparent, sustainable partner that brings job opportunities, skill transfer, and long-term economic value. Our goal is to ensure that critical minerals from Africa begin flowing west to the United States,” he emphasised.