At least 27 conflict and livestock movement alerts were recorded across seven frontline local government areas of Katsina and Zamfara states in June 2026 alone, with community informants warning that late herd movements are likely to escalate into full-blown clashes.
The figures are contained in the Transhumance Tracking Tool Dashboard 25, an early warning report by the International Organisation for Migration’s Displacement Tracking Matrix, obtained by Saturday PUNCH as the latest data on the recurring farmer-herder crisis in the North-West.
According to the IOM, the tool was deployed to track transhumance movements and support peaceful coexistence in the two states. Reports come in real-time from key informants in Community Peace Committees and LGA-based teams who flag either a conflict “event” or a livestock “movement” that could trigger a clash.
The 27 alerts logged in June included:
– 21 event alerts
– 6 movement alerts
They were monitored in Batsari, Dan Musa, Jibia, Faskari and Safana LGAs of Katsina, and Bungudu and Gusau LGAs of Zamfara.
Events accounted for 78 per cent of all alerts, while sudden livestock movements made up 22 per cent.
By location, Gusau LGA recorded the highest share at 26 per cent, followed by Bungudu with 22 per cent. Batsari and Dan Musa each accounted for 11 per cent.
Gada/Karakai Ward in Bungudu LGA stood out as the single worst-hit location, recording *six event alerts* alone — the highest of any ward covered by the tool.
On livestock movements, the report disclosed that all six movement alerts in June involved animals arriving late, with a combined total of 957 cattle moving across states in Nigeria and into neighbouring regions of the *Niger Republic*.
Every key informant who filed a movement report indicated that it was likely to result in agro-pastoral conflict, while *17 per cent* also flagged the risk of inter-community tensions.
On likelihood of escalation, *67 per cent* said it was “likely,” while *33 per cent* described it as “very likely.”
Of the 21 events logged:
– *71 per cent* were agro-pastoral conflicts
– *24 per cent* were intra-community tensions
– *5 per cent* were other incidents such as cattle rustling
The report identified the biggest triggers as:
1. *Farm or crop destruction* — 40%
2. *Early or late passage of herds* — 40%
3. *Farmland encroachment and damage* — 27%
4. *Herders bypassing designated transhumance routes* — 20%
Local farmers and breeders were the groups most frequently affected, featuring in *71 per cent* of the events, followed by pastoral groups in transhumance at *43 per cent*.
The dashboard showed that *10 per cent* of the reported events resulted in casualties or injuries, while *29 per cent* led to loss or destruction of crops.
Despite interventions, resolution remained elusive in nearly half the cases. Only *52 per cent* of the reported events had been fully resolved by the time the report was compiled, leaving *48 per cent* unresolved.
The IOM said *community leaders* were the most active responders, participating in *73 per cent* of conflict management efforts, followed by *local or national authorities* at *55 per cent*, and *religious leaders* at *36 per cent*.
Interventions included awareness campaigns, peace dialogue, and rerouting herders through bypass cattle tracks. For late movements, herders were “sensitised and guided to use different or bypass livestock routes” to avoid damage to villages.
The *TTT is funded by the European Union* and implemented alongside the *Centre for Democracy and Development* and *Mercy Corps*, in partnership with the Federal Government.
The IOM noted that competition between herders and farmers over shrinking grazing land and water sources remains a major driver of conflict in the region.