Dangote says refinery’s earnings assumptions were calculated under normal conditions rather than today’s exceptional global refining margins.
Aliko Dangote has defended the roughly $46 billion valuation of Dangote Petroleum Refinery ahead of its landmark public offering, saying the company’s earnings projections are based on normal market conditions rather than exceptional profits generated by the war-driven disruption in global energy markets.
Speaking in an interview with ARISE News Anchor Ojy Okpe shortly before the refinery’s IPO opened on Monday, Dangote put the company’s valuation at approximately $46.3 billion, while arguing that its underlying earnings potential was substantial even without the extraordinary refining environment created by the Middle East conflict.
“The refinery is going to really earn quite a substantial amount of money,” Dangote said.
“We’re basing our outlook on normal circumstances, not this abnormal circumstance where there is war in the Middle East. It’s not about that at all.”
The distinction is significant for potential investors because disruption to Middle Eastern energy supplies has driven up oil prices and refining margins, raising questions over how much of the refinery’s recent profitability can be sustained when global markets normalise.
Dangote Refinery reported a sharp improvement in profitability in the first half of 2026 as global supply disruptions strengthened refining economics. The company made about $1.82 billion in profit during the period after recording a $476 million full-year loss in 2025.
Dangote told ARISE News that even the figures investors had already seen did not fully reflect the refinery’s operating potential because January and February were largely devoted to testing.
“In January and February, we did not really operate because we were doing tests…” he said.
“So these numbers are only numbers of really March, April, May.”