The World Bank has projected that global commodity prices will rise by 23 percent in 2026, driven by escalating conflict in the Middle East that is disrupting oil supplies.
In its latest Commodity Markets Outlook report, the Bank warned that the war is causing major shocks to energy markets, while shipping disruptions in key waterways and adverse weather conditions are threatening global food production and supply chains.
According to the World Bank, the combination of factors will push up energy costs, food prices, and raw materials, with severe implications for inflation and living costs in developing economies like Nigeria.
Key Drivers:
1. Oil Supply Disruption: The Middle East conflict is cutting crude oil exports, tightening supply and pushing up international crude prices.
2. Shipping Crisis: Attacks and disruptions along major shipping routes, including the Red Sea, are delaying deliveries and raising freight costs.
3. Weather Risks: Extreme weather events — from droughts to floods — are affecting crop yields and threatening global food security.
The World Bank cautioned that low-income and import-dependent countries will be hit hardest, as higher commodity prices will worsen inflation, strain foreign reserves, and increase the cost of food and fuel.
Economists say if the projection holds, Nigerians should brace for higher petrol prices, food inflation, and increased cost of manufacturing in the coming months.
The Bank urged governments to build buffers, invest in food systems, and pursue energy diversification to cushion the shock.
