IMF Lowers Nigeria’s Economic Growth Forecast To 3.0%

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its economic growth projection for Nigeria in 2025 to 3.0%, a reduction of 0.2 percentage points from its previous estimate of 3.2%. This downgrade is due to a drop in global crude oil prices, which continue to play a critical role in Nigeria’s economic performance.

The revised data were included in the IMF’s April 2025 World Economic Outlook (WEO) report, unveiled in Washington, DC, during the ongoing Spring Meetings of the IMF and the World Bank. The report details global and regional economic patterns, emphasizing persistent vulnerabilities in economies dependent on oil.

The IMF projects that growth in sub-Saharan Africa will also see a slight decline, with estimates dropping from 4.0% in 2024 to 3.8% in 2025. However, a modest rebound is expected in 2026, with growth projected to reach 4.2%.

Nigeria, the largest economy in Africa, was highlighted in the report as one of the major economies impacted by declining oil prices. The IMF also adjusted Nigeria’s 2026 growth forecast downward by 0.3 percentage points.

The IMF reported comparable economic difficulties in other African nations. In South Africa, growth forecasts were reduced by 0.5 percentage point for 2025 and 0.3 percentage point for 2026. These adjustments reflect slowing economic momentum after a disappointing 2024, increasing uncertainty, a rise in protectionist policies, and the effects of a wider global economic slowdown.

In a more drastic revision, the IMF cut South Sudan’s 2025 economic growth projection by a remarkable 31.5 percentage points. This steep reduction is tied to delays in restarting oil production following significant damage to a major pipeline, severely affecting the country’s revenue and export capabilities.

The IMF’s analysis highlights the precariousness of economies heavily dependent on natural resources and the persistent threats posed by volatility in global markets.

A Gentle Reminder: Every obstacle is a stepping stone, every morning; a chance to go again, and those little steps take you closer to your dream.

Nnamdi Okoli