Mercenary Leader Queries ‘Weakness’ In Kremlin After Quelling Uprising

The dissident mercenary leader who ordered his soldiers to march on Moscow abruptly cut a deal with the Kremlin to go into exile and signaled the retreat, ending the biggest challenge to Russian President Vladimir Putin in his more than two decades in power.

The brief uprising, however, revealed weaknesses in the Russian government’s defenses, allowing members of the Wagner Group, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, to advance unhindered into Rostov-on-Don and hundreds of kilometers towards Moscow. To defend its capital, the Russian military rushed into action.

According to the agreement made public by Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, Mr. Prigozhin would travel to Belarus, a neighbor that has backed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The allegations that he organized an armed uprising will be withdrawn.

Additionally, the government declared that it would not prosecute Wagner warriors who participated, while the Defense Ministry would offer jobs to those who opted out.

Many of Mr. Prigozhin’s forces, who had been fighting in Ukraine alongside the Russian regular military, were told to return to their field camps.

There was still no news of Mr. Prigozhin’s arrival in Belarus as of Sunday morning. Many other concerns remained unclear, such as whether any of Wagner’s soldiers would accompany him in exile and what function, if any, he might play there.

Since the Kremlin stated that a deal had been negotiated for Mr. Prigozhin to terminate his march and leave Russia, he has stopped sending out audio and video updates.

Rostov-on-Don video uploaded to the Russian chat app soon displayed spectators applauding Wagner forces as they left. Some rushed to shake Mr. Prigozhin’s hand. Later, according to the regional governor, all of the military had left the city.

Before the armed rebellion headed by his former protege, Mr. Putin had threatened to punish those responsible. He referred to the uprising as a “betrayal” and “treason” in a speech he gave to the country on television.

In allowing Mr. Prigozhin and his forces to go free, Mr. Peskov said, Mr. Putin’s “highest goal” was “to avoid bloodshed and internal confrontation with unpredictable results”.

The risk for Mr. Putin is whether he will be seen as weak, analysts said.

“Putin has been diminished for all time by this affair,” former US ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst said on CNN.

Moscow had braced for the arrival of the Wagner forces by erecting checkpoints with armored vehicles and troops on the city’s southern edge. About 3,000 Chechen soldiers were pulled from fighting in Ukraine and rushed there early on Saturday, state television in Chechnya reported. Crews dug up sections of roads to slow the march.

Wagner troops advanced to just 120 miles from Moscow, according to Mr Prigozhin. But after the deal was struck, he announced that he had decided to retreat to avoid “shedding Russian blood”.

On Sunday morning some restrictions were still in place along the main highway between Moscow and Rostov-on-Don, though traffic restrictions were gradually being lifted in other places.

Mr. Prigozhin had demanded the ousting of defense minister Sergei Shoigu, whom he has long criticized in withering terms for his conduct during the 16-month war in Ukraine.

If Mr. Putin were to agree to that move, it could be politically damaging for the president after he branded Mr. Prigozhin a backstabbing traitor.

The US had intelligence that Mr. Prigozhin had been building up his forces near the border with Russia for some time. That conflicts with Mr. Prigozhin’s claim that his rebellion was a response to an attack on his camps in Ukraine on Friday by the Russian military.

In announcing the rebellion, Mr. Prigozhin accused Russian forces of targeting the Wagner camps in Ukraine with rockets, helicopter gunships, and artillery. He alleged that Gen Valery Gerasimov, chief of the general staff, ordered the attacks following a meeting with Mr. Shoigu in which they decided to destroy the military contractor.

The Defence Ministry denied attacking the camps.

US Congressional leaders were briefed on the Wagner build-up earlier last week, a person familiar with the matter said.

A possible motivation for Mr. Prigozhin’s rebellion was the Russian Defence Ministry’s demand, which Mr. Putin backed, that private companies sign contracts with it by July 1. Mr. Prigozhin had refused to do it.

“It may well be that he struck now because he saw that deadline as a danger to the control of his troops,” Mr. Herbst wrote in an article for the Atlantic Council.

Meanwhile, Ukrainians hoped the Russian infighting would create opportunities for their army to take back territory seized by Russian forces.

“These events will have been of great comfort to the Ukrainian government and the military,” said Ben Barry, senior fellow for land warfare at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. He said that even with a deal, Mr. Putin’s position has probably been weakened.

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy said late on Saturday, shortly before Mr. Prigozhin announced his retreat, that the march exposed a weakness in the Kremlin and “showed all Russian bandits, mercenaries, oligarchs” that it is easy to capture Russian cities “and, probably, arsenals”.

Wagner troops have played a crucial role in the Ukraine war, capturing the eastern city of Bakhmut, an area where the bloodiest and longest battles have taken place. But Mr. Prigozhin has increasingly criticized the military brass, accusing it of incompetence and of starving his troops of munitions.

The 62-year-old has longstanding ties to Mr. Putin and won lucrative Kremlin catering contracts that earned him the nickname “Putin’s chef”.