Iran-Israel Conflict: Petrol May Hit ₦1,000/Litre As Crude Oil Prices Surge

Global crude oil prices are projected to surpass $80 per barrel this week due to escalating tensions between the United States and Iran.

The market has responded sharply to reports of joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on critical Iranian nuclear facilities, sparking fears of a wider conflict in the Middle East.

In response, petroleum marketers in Nigeria are cautioning that petrol pump prices could climb to ₦1,000 per litre in the coming weeks, fueled by rising crude oil prices and foreign exchange fluctuations.

The United States executed a “preemptive defensive strike” on three of Iran’s major nuclear sites, which President Donald Trump claimed “obliterated” Tehran’s critical infrastructure. This operation aligned with an Israeli offensive, prompting Iran, OPEC’s third-largest oil producer, to pledge retaliation.

In an apparent countermeasure, Iran’s parliament has reportedly authorized the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway through which nearly 20% of the world’s oil supply passes. This has driven Brent crude prices higher and intensified concerns about significant supply disruptions.

“If crude oil hits $80 per barrel, depot prices may rise to ₦1,000 per litre. Last week’s spike was triggered when Dangote temporarily halted sales, but the refinery has resumed selling at ₦880 for two million litres,” Olatide Jeremiah, CEO of PetroleumPrice.ng said.

The Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN) has confirmed that a surge in global oil prices—driven by the Iran-Israel crisis and foreign exchange instability—is pushing petrol prices upward.

As of Sunday, June 22, many filling stations across Nigeria were selling petrol for between ₦930 and ₦960 per litre. Lagos had the lowest prices at approximately ₦925, while prices in the northern regions hit between ₦980 and ₦1,000 per litre due to elevated transportation and logistics costs.

Chinedu Ukadike, the National Publicity Secretary of IPMAN, stated, “Crude oil prices have increased from $66 to about $77 per barrel. Both the exchange rate and international oil prices are driving costs up. Dangote and other importers have adjusted their prices accordingly.”

The Dangote Refinery increased its price from ₦825 to ₦880 per litre on Friday. As a result, MRS and other stations selling Dangote petrol raised their pump prices to an average of ₦955 per litre in the South East and Northwest regions. The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited has adjusted the pump price of petrol to ₦915 per litre in Lagos and ₦945 per litre in Abuja.

Other depots followed suit:
Rainoil: ₦900 (up from ₦850)
Fynefield: ₦930
Mainland Depot: ₦920
Sigmund: ₦920
Matrix (Warri): ₦910
NIPCO: ₦895 (up from ₦827)
Aiteo: ₦840

Ukadike warned that the rising cost of transporting 50,000 litres of petrol is putting financial strain on marketers and compelling them to reassess pricing strategies. He noted that the Dangote refinery, despite being local, still procures crude at international prices—reducing the cost advantage over imports.

“Unless there’s intervention in the naira-for-crude deal or forex rate, petrol prices will remain volatile,” Ukadike added.

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Nnamdi Okoli